AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (2024)

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (1)

A year and a half after the launch of RDNA 3, AMD’s graphics card lineup has grown a little stagnant — as has Nvidia’s. We’re all waiting for a new generation, and according to previous leaks, AMD was getting ready to release RDNA 4 later this year. Except that now, we’re hearing that it might not happen until CES 2025, which is still six months away.

Contents

  • There’s never been a better time
  • CES 2025? Really?
  • Lowering expectations
  • Bigger fish to fry?

Launching the new GPUs in the first quarter of 2025 is a decision that could easily backfire, and it’s never been more important for AMD to get the timing right. In fact, if AMD really decides to wait until January 2025 to unveil RDNA 4, it’ll miss out on a huge opportunity to beat Nvidia.

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There’s never been a better time

Who’s a PC hardware enthusiast’s best friend during the period between one generation of GPUs and the next? Various leakers, of course. Without them, we’d be kept in the dark for months on end.

The downside? A lot of the stuff we hear turns out to be untrue, and it’s all too easy to make something up and share it as a rumor, then see it echo throughout the internet as if it were a fact. As a result, hunting for useful information about next-gen graphics cards is a bit of a minefield.

Out of all the rumors I’ve heard about RDNA 4 and RTX 50-series graphics cards, the idea that they’d hit the shelves in late 2024 was possibly the least outlandish. After all, it made perfect sense for a number of reasons, and that’s true for both manufacturers.

First, it’d have been two years after their previous big launches, and that’s often the gap between one gen and the next. Second, the back half of the year is generally when many tech giants aim to get some new products out. It’s not just due to holiday sales but also because there are usually plenty of new games being released around the same time, prompting gamers to update their PCs.

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (3)

Admittedly, there have been fewer rumors about AMD’s RDNA 4 than there have been about Nvidia’s RTX 50-series. But based on what we know, it seems safe to assume that Nvidia will open with its high-end cards near the end of the year. Mainstream GPUs, like the RTX 5070 and the RTX 5060, are only said to follow in 2025.

That’s fantastic news for AMD.

No, it’s not about launching something better than Nvidia and stealing potential sales. Despite reportedly having better brand recognition than Intel, AMD is always the underdog in its competition with Nvidia, which remains the go-to for many gamers. There are only so many customers it can ever hope to “steal.” It’s about filling a niche that Nvidia is basically leaving wide open and up for grabs.

If Nvidia launches the RTX 5090 and the RTX 5080 in late 2024, we’re looking at two GPUs that will cost $1,000 and more. (I would be overjoyed to see a sub-$1,000 RTX 5080, but I’m a realist.) Such GPUs look great in benchmarks and are exciting in AAA games, but let’s face it — most of us don’t need them, and most of us don’t want to spend that much money on a graphics card alone.

With two next-gen behemoths from AMD (although the RTX 5080 is reportedly not going to be that impressive), what can you do if you want a next-gen GPU, but don’t want to spend a small fortune? Well, this is where AMD could swoop in as the alternative. With RDNA 4 launching between September and December, AMD would provide a solution to this problem. Next-generation cards with decent performance and a less-than-outrageous price? I’m no marketing guru, but that sounds like a recipe for success. Better yet, there’d be nothing that Nvidia could do to remedy that.

The problem is that this scenario might never become a reality.

CES 2025? Really?

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (4)

According to frequent GPU tipster Kepler_L2 on X (formerly Twitter), AMD may hold off with launching RDNA 4. I don’t mean a month or two. I mean holding off for so long that suddenly, it’s 2025 and the cards are still not on the shelves.

The leaker, cryptic as ever, didn’t reveal much — in fact, their predictions were only made in a reply to someone else’s tweet. When asked about whether RDNA 4 would be released in 2024, Kepler replied: “CES.” And it’s not even both of the GPUs that are said to be launched at that time. Kepler expects that the Navi 48 (the flagship) will be unveiled during CES 2025, but the Navi 44 (the lower midrange card) will only follow in the second quarter of 2025.

Oh CES is for N48. N44 is probably Q2.

— Kepler (@Kepler_L2) July 5, 2024

Obligatory disclaimer: Until proven otherwise, this is just a rumor. And, as I’ve outlined above, this is a rumor that may not make too much sense from a business standpoint. I don’t pretend to be a market analyst, but all the signs point to the fact that the end of this year would be a good time for AMD to strike against Nvidia. Come next year, Nvidia will already be on the cusp of launching the RTX 5070 and the RTX 5060. Who knows, maybe some remnants of Intel Battlemage will even make it to market by then, too.

With that out of the door, I can’t help but feel a little worried about AMD and the larger state of graphics cards right now. A delay is one thing, but when looking at the bigger picture, I’m starting to wonder just how much AMD still cares about its consumer graphics cards. We’ve already had to adjust our expectations quite a lot, but it seems another readjustment might be necessary.

Lowering expectations

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (5)

To understand the context of this upcoming launch, we need to revisit the past. In 2022, before the launch of RDNA 3, I was excited about what seemed to be a solid generation of graphics cards. AMD appeared to have a real competitor to Nvidia on its hands, and the GPUs hit the market just a month after Nvidia’s RTX 4080. AMD couldn’t have timed that launch better if it tried.

The RX 7900 XTX, priced at $200 less than the RTX 4080, offered similar performance in terms of pure rasterization in games. Sure, it still wasn’t the ray tracing workhorse Nvidia was able to deliver, and the lack of Nvidia’s Deep Learning Super Sampling 3 (DLSS 3) frame generation was a bummer — but it was a solid GPU at a less outrageous price.

For the first time in a long time, I actually considered giving up on Nvidia and trying out AMD in my own PC. But, having seen the RX 7900 XTX in action, and with the price not being a lot different from that of the RTX 4080, I ended up getting the Nvidia card.

I can’t say I regret my choice of GPU. The RTX 4080 is an absolute powerhouse. With that said, I continue rooting for AMD, and I was impressed with some of its RDNA 3 graphics cards. The RX 7800 XT and the RX 7900 GRE especially stand out as examples of good value for the money, and that’s a factor that can’t be overlooked in PC hardware.

If there was one thing I’d have liked to see from AMD in RDNA 3 — other than a slightly cheaper flagship — it was a competitor to the RTX 4090. The RX 7900 XTX can rival the RTX 4080, but that’s still 30% to 40% slower than the 4090. It’d have been nice to see AMD come up with an answer to Nvidia’s most powerful GPU, but hey, there was always the next generation. I’ve been awaiting it eagerly with all the force of my reignited enthusiasm for AMD … until the leaks and rumors started, that is.

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (6)

We’ve now heard from enough sources that AMD is stepping down from the high-end GPU race that it almost feels like it’s been confirmed at this point. Of course, it wasn’t, because AMD is yet to say a word about RDNA 4. But rumor has it that the top card in the lineup will outpace this generation’s RX 7900 XT in ray tracing and will keep up with it in rasterization. That’s not that much to write home about, honestly.

The whole period between RDNA 3 and RDNA 4 has gradually lowered my expectations for AMD’s gaming GPU business. Don’t get me wrong. There’s a lot of merit in focusing on mainstream cards. This is more true than ever before now, when Nvidia might not even have a sub-$1,000 GPU out until well into the first quarter of 2025.

On the other hand, that’s all the more reason why delays might backfire. Taking advantage of this short window of time when Nvidia won’t have any next-gen GPU at an affordable price could be huge, and during the holiday shopping season, no less. Now is not the time for delays.

Let’s assume that this rumor is true. Would AMD be delaying RDNA 4 because the cards weren’t ready, despite traces of them having started showing up in drivers months ago? Or is it because it’s just not that desperate to score those end-of-the-year sales anymore?

Bigger fish to fry?

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (7)

AMD clawed its way out of near bankruptcy in 2015 and made a glorious return as the one and only true competitor to two giants: Intel and Nvidia. While its rivals mostly specialize in just one thing, AMD has diversified, and although it doesn’t lead either market, it’s responsible for some of the best processors and some top-notch GPUs. In recent years especially, AMD’s products have been getting great reviews, from its 3D V-Cache gaming CPUs to its more reasonably priced GPUs.

But AMD’s gaming segment appears to be bleeding money. Its gaming revenue dropped by 48% year-over-year, and even AMD itself doesn’t expect it to get better.

Jean Hu, AMD’s CFO, recently talked about how the subpar sales of its Radeon GPUs affected the gaming segment in a big way. The company predicts that the revenue in that segment will continue to decline. Where’s AMD going to make money then? It’s simple: From its data center and client segment.

There’s been a shift in focus for nearly every tech company out there in recent years. From Copilot+ PCs to ChatGPT to Apple Intelligence, everything is all about AI. For companies like AMD, that means data centers and accelerators like the AMD Instinct MI300X that power generative AI and high-performance computing (HPC). AMD will never make as much money from its consumer gaming products as it does from its enterprise portfolio — that’s a fact. The same goes for Nvidia.

AMD’s leadership obviously recognizes that. In a recent interview with German website Handelsblatt, AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su told the publication: “We are still at the very beginning of the AI revolution. My goal is for us to lead this revolution.”

All of that put together and combined with the fact that AMD’s GPU shipments have recently decreased, and Moore’s Law Is Dead revealing that AMD may be discontinuing the production of RDNA 3 cards confirms my worst fears. Could RDNA 4 be delayed simply because AMD’s focus is now elsewhere? There are much bigger fish to fry, after all.

It’s too early to panic, of course. These are all just seemingly unconnected anecdotes, and we very well may still see RDNA 4 this year. But if we don’t, and if RDNA 5 continues the same trend of not being overly competitive, it will no longer be a stretch to assume that AMD’s gaming business is becoming an afterthought — and that’d be bad news for PC gamers.

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AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends (2024)

FAQs

AMD may lose a golden opportunity to beat Nvidia this year | Digital Trends? ›

A year and a half after the launch of RDNA 3, AMD

AMD
AMD's processors are used in a wide range of computing devices, including personal computers, servers, laptops, and gaming consoles. While it initially manufactured its own processors, the company later outsourced its manufacturing, after GlobalFoundries was spun off in 2009.
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › AMD
's graphics card lineup has grown a little stagnant — as has Nvidia's. We're all waiting for a new generation, and according to previous leaks, AMD was getting ready to release RDNA 4 later this year.

Who is winning AMD or Nvidia? ›

AMD generally leads in frame rates, but Nvidia leads in ray tracing. Both AMD and Nvidia do a good job of ironing out compatibility issues and performance issues for games. It's impossible to declare a winner—both graphics card drivers break and unbreak as software gets updated and patched.

Can an AMD GPU do AI? ›

High performance: AMD GPUs offer excellent performance for AI workloads, thanks to their high core count and high clock speeds. Low power consumption: AMD GPUs are relatively power-efficient, which can save on costs.

Why are GPUs so scarce? ›

Surges in cryptocurrency prices led to a boom in mining activities, increasing the demand for GPUs. Cryptocurrency miners often buy GPUs in bulk, exacerbating the shortage. Moreover, the profitability of mining has made GPUs a hot commodity, leading to inflated prices.

What graphics card is coming to Nvidia 2024? ›

At CES 2024, Nvidia announced three new graphics cards: The Nvidia GeForce RTX 4080 Super, RTX 4070 Ti Super and RTX 4070 Super. These new GPUs are replacing, well, the RTX 4080, RTX 4070 Ti and RTX 4070 at the same price points.

Will AMD ever catch up to Nvidia? ›

Conclusions. While AMD has come a long way with its GPU for AI, the company is still trying to just catch up with Nvidia hardware. Never mind the massive gap in the ecosystem Nvidia enjoys. Yes, AMD sees adding more HBM as a differentiator, but thats not enough to compete with Nvidia's system-level differentiation.

Is AMD going to overtake Nvidia? ›

Given its flat year-over-year revenue growth, at 46 times the next twelve months' earnings, AMD's current valuation appears to be stretched. At 47 for the same multiple, Nvidia barely beats AMD by this same metric, even though its recent growth rate has been much greater.

Is AMD competing with Nvidia? ›

AMD has perfected the art of being a runner-up after several years of vying with Intel for X86 CPU server market share, even as it continues to evolve and compete against Intel, Nvidia and Qualcomm in several aspects of AI.

Why is Nvidia better than AMD AI? ›

Nvidia's data center GPUs have been far more successful than AMD's. GPUs are vital to processing AI models because they can perform calculations in parallel. This allows them to train AI models much quicker than a traditional CPU (central processing unit).

How close is AMD to Nvidia? ›

While Nvidia's growth is eye-popping, AMD is coming from a large revenue base of $23.6 billion in 2022 compared to Nvidia's $26.9 billion. Still, Nvidia's growth trajectory positions it to pull far ahead of AMD in total revenue by 2024.

Who is buying up all the GPUs? ›

Microsoft and Meta (META) are two of the largest buyers of Nvidia's H100 chips.

Who owns the most GPUs? ›

As of the fourth quarter of 2023, Intel was the biggest vendor in the PC GPU market worldwide, occupying 67 percent of the market. AMD occupied 15 percent of the market, while Nvidia took a market share of 18 percent.

Are GPUs still overpriced? ›

Far from GPUs being expensive today, if we consider the actual performance we're getting for our dollar, we see that we're actually getting a better deal than we have at pretty much any point over the past 25 years. And just to hit the point home, we see an even clearer picture for 1440p.

What will Nvidia be in 5 years? ›

If the semiconductor giant's growth tapers off in the two that follow years to, let's say 25% a year, its revenue could reach $288 billion after five years. That would be close to a 5x increase in its revenue from fiscal 2024, and would be almost equivalent to the growth clocked by the company in the past five years.

What is the Nvidia end of year prediction? ›

NVDA Stock 12 Month Forecast

Based on 41 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nvidia in the last 3 months. The average price target is $144.17 with a high forecast of $200.00 and a low forecast of $100.00. The average price target represents a 43.31% change from the last price of $100.60.

Is there a Nvidia 2050? ›

The GeForce RTX 2050 Mobile is a mobile graphics chip by NVIDIA, launched on December 17th, 2021.

Is NVDA better than AMD? ›

However, Nvidia still offers the better value between the two stocks. In addition, with Nvidia generating free cash flow of $15 billion last quarter compared to AMD's $379 million, the choice is a no-brainer. Nvidia is the better AI stock and is worth a long-term investment this year.

Can AMD beat Nvidia in GPU? ›

Nvidia currently dominates the market for graphics processing units, or GPUs, used for running computationally intensive AI workloads. But AMD has proven to be an able fast-follower. AMD's Instinct MI300 series accelerators provide a viable alternative to Nvidia's current H100 GPU, analysts say.

Who sells more AMD or Nvidia? ›

Intel is technically in the market, too, but it lacks enough share to register a blip on the radar.

Is AMD more power efficient than Nvidia? ›

When set up right out of the box, AMD's card has a power draw of 263 watts, while Nvidia's offering sips just 200 watts. If you're concerned about your graphics card getting hot and heavy in operation — and spiking your electricity bill — the RTX 4070 is probably the better choice.

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